Sales, Interest Rates, Activity…Has the bottom been reached?

Sales increasing, Interest Rates rising, Increased Market Activity,What Does it Mean?

Since the beginning of the year, the interest and activity in what is often referred to as the Greater Seattle area (King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap Counties), has steadily increased.  Is this the normal Spring rush or is it finally the beginning of a recovery that has long been awaited?  During April and May, the pending sales were higher than the same months in 2000, which was the beginning of a 7-year run-up in real estate values.  Is this the start of a recovery in the real estate market?  Sorry to say, probably not.  Only time will tell if this is temporary or not but the activity is normal for this time of year and unfortunately is only consuming a small fraction of the current inventory.  With the continued addition of foreclosures, short sale houses, and developments that were in progress or needed to be constructed for the banks to stop losses, the market continues to labor.  All that being said, this is still a great time for all buyers to acquire houses.  For those 1st time buyers that are waiting for the bottom, you might miss out on the $8,000 first time buyers credit and the historically low rates that have just started to rise, which I’ll discuss further below.  For now, let’s discuss the greater Seattle market, at the end of May, there was 27,286 listings on houses and condominiums for sale, which is a reported 20% decline in listings from the same time last year.  Since pending sales totaled 5,498 it would take some time to bring the market back to a sellers market.  The highest activity is in the traditional 1st time buyer sales range, listings below $400,000, and if priced right, the houses have been extremely active.  That coupled with the recent interest rate increases and the upcoming end of the tax credit has made the market more volatile.  Should you keep waiting?  For What!   

The rates have started to rise mostly due to a couple of factors, one the number of people refinancing their houses in order to take advantage of the historically low rates, and the other is other countries distrust in our real estate market.  When the mortgage rates started falling, people began drooling over what they could save in monthly payments and interest paid on their houses.  Even though the interest rates on mortgages have been relatively low for the past 10 years, people want the lowest possible rate and how can you blame them.  This is probably the biggest debt that they have and to be able to have the lowest rate in many, many years is almost unbearable to let go.  But, does this help the economy…NO!  There are no houses changing hands, the lenders get less money for loans, and people get more settled in their houses so in the near term, the demand for housing declines.  All for the status quo.  Add to that, the other countries in the world are beginning to want a premium for buying the bonds that generate the funds for lenders because we almost tanked the world economy with our bad loans.  So being smart, they are asking for higher returns as the risk is greater.  It used to be that real estate loans were of very little risk as no matter what, you had the house and land.  Up until the last couple of years that was sufficient, that is until the house values started sliding and the risk became greater.  So where does that leave us?  In a darn good market. 

Yes, that’s right, a darn good market.  Why, because with all that has happened, the cost of houses is the lowest it’s been in years.  The interest rates are still at the lowest level in years, nearly half of what they were in the early 80′s.  Yes, you do have to be smart, put down an appropriate amount and purchase within your ability to cover the loan payment with your net income.  But most of all, don’t make the mistake of some of the people that are being foreclosed on, don’t allow greed to determine your future.  One very simplistic way to determine whether or not you can pay for certain houses is to find out what the payment is and then start making it to yourself.  Here’s how that works: First;, determine what the payment will be, let’s say $2,000 per month; secondly, take out your current mortgage or rent amount of, for example $1,100 per month; finally, that leaves $900 per month that you put into savings and do not touch for any reason.   Do that for about 6 months and if it has become easy to afford to do this, the payment is right for you.  If it’s too high or low, make adjustments and continue to do it.  The bonus for you is that after that amount of time, you’ve also now saved an additional $5,400 towards your down payment.  If you do this in addition to saving for your down payment, you’ll be surprised as how much you can afford to put down on that new house. 

Then all I have to say is happy hunting!

Dave Sato

425-213-6411